6 storms expected to hit during season

NICOLE KING
Staff Writer

The predictions for the 2006 Hurricane season have been released and it appears Florida may be spared another high-risk season. The forecast calls for six storms to make landfall: three Category 3 or higher, two Category 2 or less hurricanes and one tropical storm. Accuweather.com predicts that the region from the Carolinas northeast is the prime area for above-normal risk of impact from hurricane activity. The Gulf Coast from central Louisiana westward are going to have an elevated risk, but the southwest Florida Gulf coast may be in danger later in the season.

"Last year was extremely busy compared to normal, it still will be above normal in terms of performance," said Henry Margusity, senior meteorologist for Accuweather. com. "We're still in a period of above-normal activity." The greatest elevated threat will be in New England. The heavy rain in New England last year was a sign of a maturing of the warmwater cycle in the Atlantic. The heat and dryness of this summer across the midsection of the United States is similar to a pattern in the 1930s, the 1940s and 1950s. "When you look back over the years, in the Ô30s and Ô50s, we had a lot of activity and then we're back to that," Margusity said. "Sometimes these things last ten to 30 years."

New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle are in danger as the damage from last year's storms have made the area vulnerable. From the Carolinas northward are in danger at the heart of the season, and the western Gulf Coast earlier in the season. Late-season activity may threaten southwest Florida during the second half of October and early November. Margusity said meteorologists examine weather patterns from around the world to make predictions.

"We look at weather patterns going on around the world, specifically across the United States, and we look at similar patterns that happened in years past and look at how many hurricanes occurred during those years," he said.